ECONOMICS: Hundreds Of Forecasters Talk Information

July 13, 2015 Nemes Random

Economists and statisticians from all over the world are collected in Riverside to discoverlearn how to much better chart a course to the future.

The 35th International Symposium on Forecasting is taking locationhappening through Wednesday at Riverside Convention Center.

It is being participated in by about 300 people, according to its chairman, UC Riverside economics professor Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera, who next year will become president of the International Institute of Forecasters.

Hal Varian, chief economist for Google, provided Monday morning’s keynote, telling attendees just how much useful data sites, social networks and companies such as FedEx have actually created for their own usages.

“It’s not simply Google. The personaleconomic sector has lots of actually good high-frequency genuine time information. …,” he said. “When you thinkthink of it, in the privateeconomic sector you’ve got people determining your spending on a day-by-day basis, sometimes even a hourly basis. … grocery store scanner data, search engine and so on.

“Government agencies have these long historic series with low frequency, and the challenge that I believe we face as economists and statisticians is how can we combine this public and personal data in a methodin a manner that permits us to get a much better photo of what’s happening with the economy on both a microeconomic level and a macroeconomic level.”

Although much of the conversation is highly technical – aimed at people with, for example, a working knowledge of Bayesian model averaging – the conference addresses subjects that are vital to everyone: finance, energy, healthcare, even tourism.

Sessions are dedicated to supply chains, of interest to Inland Southern California since of its high concentration of warehouses and logistics workers that live right here.

A scarcity of truck motorists is amongst the trends in supply chains, said Thomas J. Goldsby of Fisher School of Business, Ohio State University.

“Supply chain risk management is possibly one of the trendiest topics in our realm, among the most popular topics in all of business, I believe,” he said in his Monday morning talk.

“And the danger are countless, everything from a supplier disruption to a late shipment, West Coastline port closures … And it’s really becoming overwhelming. Clearly there’s a requirementa have to focus on the risks and identify what you must go after.”

Contact the author: fbuck@pe.com or 951-368-9551

Economics,

Comments are currently closed.